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The issue: Mayor Gordon's role in job creation

Who said it: Phil Gordon, mayor of Phoenix

by Emily Gersema - May 13, 2011, 5:34 pm

What we're looking at

Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon says he is helping to add more than 50,000 jobs in Maricopa County this year.

The comment

"Already this year, employment figures show we're at 11,000 new jobs and rising in Maricopa County. At that pace, we'll add more than 50,000 jobs in 2011."

Analysis

Gordon's senior assistant, Janey Pearl, said the numbers Gordon cited in his speech were extrapolated from Maricopa County employment table in the Arizona Commerce Authority's monthly employment report released in March.

The report then showed the county gained 10,600 jobs from January to February, but that figure was revised in April's report to about 9,500 jobs. The April report also showed the county had gained an additional 9,800 jobs from February to March.

That means the county added 19,300 jobs from January to March — about 8,700 jobs more than Gordon was claiming at the time of his speech.

If the county continues to add jobs at that pace (an average gain of 9,650 jobs per month), it will have added 115,800 jobs by the end of December, more than double the 50,000 Gordon believes it could add.

State analysts say such large gains are highly unlikely. Gordon's speech writer, David Leibowitz, said the mayor isn't working alone to bring jobs to Maricopa County. Leibowitz said Gordon had been telling audiences he would "help lead the way" in creating jobs in the region. Gordon works on job growth by working with the city's Community Economic Development Department, private businesses and non-profit groups, Leibowitz said.

“You've seen his daily calendar,” he said. “It's full of meetings with prospective and current employers.”

Aruna Murthy, the Arizona Commerce Authority's director of economic analysis, cautioned against using the monthly employment reports to make long-term projections on annual job losses or job increases.

Murthy said the authority tabulates job increases and decreases from confidential surveys that employers complete. She said the figures are revised each month to reflect new information reported by the employers.

She also said the monthly numbers undergo a more in-depth revision at the end of the year, when the authority obtains information on all the companies that are paying taxes. That helps the authority get a more accurate count on monthly employment.

As another cautionary note, Murthy said the trends in employment tended to vary seasonally, so strong gains in the spring months are not a predictor of strong gains in the summer months.

"During the hot summer months, the numbers could go down because it's too hot and you don't get as many tourists in the state," Murthy said.

She said the authority's monthly employment reports really could be used to identify trends, such as changes in particular job sectors or industries.

Leibowitz said the mayor was just setting a goal of adding 50,000 jobs by the end of the year, not making a long-term projection.

Murthy said it was impossible for the authority to break out the number of jobs added per city because of confidentiality agreements with businesses that decide to participate in the surveys. This means there is no way to determine the number of jobs gained in Phoenix and whether Gordon may have had a hand in the job creation.

Bottom line: Gordon and his staff were unable to cite specific instances in which the mayor was key to adding jobs. Also, the employment figures they used to predict job growth can change from month to month, so they are not a reliable basis for employment forecasts. These numbers also are not broken down by city, which make it difficult to conclude whether Gordon has influenced job gains.